How does India achieve 2050's carbon reduction target?
India is the only exception, as cumulative emissions from the national model are higher than the Indian carbon budget from global cost-optimal 2 °C scenarios, as the imposition of universal carbon tax results in higher relative mitigation effort for energy inefficient countries like India.
Later City News: A paper published in the journal of "Energy" by Elsevier confirms that the “Low-emission” scenarios developed with the national-scale models are compatible with well-below 2 °C goal, as cumulative national CO₂ emissions “carbon budget” over 2010–2050 are well within the range projected by leading global models for cost-optimal scenarios meeting a carbon budget of 1000 Gt CO₂, considered equivalent to below 2 °C.
In some countries such as Canada, and USA, national pathways are even consistent with global models’ scenarios meeting the carbon budget of 400 Gt CO₂ by 2100 (equivalent to likely 1.5 °C) but India is the only exception, as cumulative emissions from the national model are higher than the Indian carbon budget from global cost-optimal 2 °C scenarios, as the imposition of universal carbon tax results in higher relative mitigation effort for energy inefficient countries like India.
This paper studies "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States" and published professor "Panagiotis Fragkos" and a group of researchers from different countries.
This research concluded that on average, national carbon budgets quantified in this study show a reduction of approximately 37% between the “Reference” and the “Low-emission” scenarios over 2011–2050; this reduction is even higher in Canada and the USA indicating their high mitigation efforts and potentials, but also in India, showing that this country has high abatement potential and the ambition level of Reference policies can be increased.
These low-carbon energy investment requirements appear manageable if the strong decline of fossil fuel-related investments compared to the Reference scenario is considered; in most developed economies such as Canada, EU, Japan, and the USA, energy investments are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.1% of GDP over 2020–2050, while the increase is somewhat higher in India, around 1.5% of GDP.